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November 25, 2003
FCC VOIP Forum agenda
The FCC has posted the agenda for the December 1 VOIP Forum. I'm on the first of two panels.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 24, 2003
Riding the rails
I'm trainblogging on the way up to Boston, where I'll be speaking this
evening, then doing a few meetings tomorrow. With the option of
using my Treo 600 as a modem, I now have pretty ubiquitous
connectivity, and to quote McDonalds, I'm lovin' it!
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 21, 2003
NTIA spectrum event
The National Telecommunications and Information Administration, which managed government spectrum, is holding a forum on
spectrum policy on December 9, with other events planned in January and
February. This is part of the Bush Administration's spectrum task
force initiative, launched in June.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 20, 2003
Upcoming events in DC
I'm participating in two events in Washington, DC in two weeks that might be of interest to readers of this blog.
First, I've been invited to speak at the FCC's Voice Over IP Forum
on December 1. This will be an important event for the future of
the VOIP industry. Several states are already trying to impose
traditional telephone regulation on VOIP services. The FCC needs
to address this issue at the federal level, and spell out a clear set
of rules that allow VOIP innovation to occur without unnecessary
uncertainty or regulation.
Second, the New America Foundation and Public Knowledge are holding a conference on December 4 entitled "Shared Airwaves, Shared Content."
They will be releasing a spectrum policy paper I've written called
"Radio Revolution." George Gilder will give the keynote, and Mike
Godwin of Public Knowledge will also be releasing a paper on digital
rights management.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 19, 2003
Verizon admits voice is just an application
Lawrence
Babbio, vice-chairman of Verizon, announced that the telco would start
offering voice over IP to its DSL customers next year:
This follows similar announcements by other Bells, though I haven't seen this much detail before. What's interesting is that Verizon is evolving toward a DSL and wireless company, rather than a wireline phone company. VOIP will be a way to sell DSL, just as Verizon's WiFi hotspots at payphones are a way to sell DSL. And with number portability, an increasing percentage of Verizon customers will use a mobile phone for their primary line.
This is absolutely the right transition for a company like Verizon to
make, though it will be difficult to pull off. Many of us have
long intoned the mantra that "voice is just another application on
converged data networks." We're finally seeing it happen big
time.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Economic impacts of broadband
The Broadband Industry Group, a coalition of ISPs in the UK, has released a report suggesting
that widespread competitive provision of broadband would add ₤22
billion (about $40 billion) to the British economy by 2015.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 18, 2003
The Triumph of Good Enough
My latest column for The Feature, on converged mobile devices.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 17, 2003
Knowledge Navigator: a walk down memory lane
A speaker just played Apple's famous Knowledge Navigator video from
1987, projecting the personal computer of 2010.
What struck me
was the slide listing the projected hardware specs: a 40GHz processor,
a 120GB hard drive, wireless connectivity, and a 1GB portable optical
storage device. Other than the processor, all of that is readily
available today, and we should have 40GHz CPUs well before 2010.
On the other hand, the humanistic user interface in the Knowledge
Navigator video seems as far off as ever. We should keep that in
mind when we project out new applications and services based on
technological capabilities.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
A hotspot in my pocket
I'm at a workshop at a conference center with no WiFi. The
alleged reason is that we're "somewhere close to" the National Security
Agency headquarters in Fort Meade, MD.
The good news is that I'm able to get online via my Treo. Using a utility called PDANet, I just plug the phone into my laptop, click a button, and I'm online over Sprint's CDMA network at 96.6kbps.
These days, I expect a WiFi connection wherever I go. But the
reality is that hotspots are far from ubiquitous, even in major cities
and high-traffic locations in the US. The cellular network,
through a powerful device like the Treo, provides an ideal fill-in
mechanism for near-ubiquitous connectivity.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 15, 2003
Burning the midnight oil
I've...been...working...on...a...weblog...
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 13, 2003
For my next Treo trick....
This is just too cool. I'm listening to streaming Internet radio
stations on my phone. It's a true emergent service, a brilliant
illustration of the end-to-end principle at work:
MP3 files --> Shoutcast --> SprintPCS network -- > Pocket Tunes on my Treo
And it just works. I click on a link, it loads, it plays.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Two Cheers for More Unlicensed Spectrum
As expected, the FCC approved an
additional 255 MHz of spectrum in the 5 GHz range for unlicensed
wireless devices. This was the result of a deal several months
ago between major technology companies and the military, which uses the
spectrum for some of its radar systems.
The additional spectrum is very welcome. It's a credit to Michael
Powell that he has taken concrete steps to facilitate the growth of
unlicensed wireless networks, with his support of WiFi, ultra-wideband,
and now this step.
However, there are two elements of the FCC's action that are
troubling. The first is that the technical standards for the band
were determined through a private negotation. A compromise with
the military was necessary to free up the spectrum, and it was an
accomplishment to get any agreement at all. However, because a
few large companies essentially represented the private sector in the
negotiations, it's not clear whether the standards adopted will allow
for development of innovative new services. "Open spectrum"
advocates such as David Reed have expressed serious reservations that
the FCC's limitations will hamstring the new band.
The second concern is that this allocation will be seen as sufficient
for the full potential of unlicensed to be realized, especially
last-mile broadband. Even without the FCC technical limitations,
it's important to note that this is high-frequency spectrum.
Radio waves at 5 GHz don't propagate long distances or penetrate
obstacles well. The new bandwidth will improve capacity for
802.11a wireless LANs, but but it may not be effective for the
longer-range scenarios that broadband to the home entails.
So let's congratulate the FCC for what it's done, but not pretend
they've done everything they should. The battle for open spectrum
continues!
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 6:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The other Werbach
For those of you in San Francisco, yes, the environmentalist Adam Werbach who was appointed to the public utilities commission
by the acting mayor (provoking outrage from the real mayor, Willie
Brown) is my brother. He's the interesting one in the family.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Where Joan Krok's money is going
I just got interviewed for an NPR segment on voice over IP, which should run tonight on the "Marketplace" show.
UPDATE: The RealAudio stream is here.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 12, 2003
Is VOIP Regulation a Done Deal?
David Isenberg thinks
the FCC has already decided how to regulate Internet telephony, based
on some comments from former FCC Chairman Reed Hundt and a letter by
current FCC Chairman Michael Powell. I'm not convinced.
Not necessarily contracting anything Reed apparently said, but here are a few points:
- To my knowledge there is no requirement that the FCC hold a
notice of inquiry proceeding before acting. The legal requirement
under the Administrative Procedure Act is "notice and comment," which
means an NPRM. An NOI is customarily done when first examining a
new area, but plenty of FCC rulemaking proceedings happen without one.
- I don't know details of the December 1 meeting, but under the
Sunshine Act, if three or more FCC Commissioners will be in the room at
the same time, it has to be a formal, on-the-record, hearing. The
alternative is an informal gathering like the WISP event they did, but
anything with people testifying to the Commission kicks in significant
requirements. Powell's letter says "hearing," while the FCC news
release says "Forum", which suggests there may have been some
uncertainty about the event.
- I understand that Jeff Pulver was invited to participate in the
Dec. 1 event, so it's not totally excluding the VOIP innovators and
entrepreneurs. We'll have to see who's on the speaker list when
it's released.
I remember when I received the ACTA petition to regulate VOIP back in
1996. As a matter of course, the FCC puts petitions for
rulemaking on public notice, and we did so in that case. There
was a huge outcry in the VOIP community that the speed of the public
notice meant the FCC was rushing to regulate. Well, it has been
seven plus years since then, and five years sine the FCC's "Stevens
Report" on VOIP. From the beginning it was clear there was a hard
issue to address about the impact of VOIP on Universal Service.
What's nefarious about the FCC finally taking on that issue in a public
proceeding?
As to whether the Commission has already made its mind up about what it
plans to do, that's a fair question. The Chairman certainly went
into the media ownership and Triennial Review proceedings with a clear
point of view. This time I'm not so sure. Powell made a
point to stop by the FCC's Technological Advisory Council last month to
ask for help in figuring out what to do about VOIP. There's
nothing in his prior record that suggests he's hell-bent on regulating
the new technology like the old.
I personally believe the FCC needs to take action on VOIP, in order to
eliminate regulatory uncertainty. They emphatically should not
impose the litany of traditional telecom regulation, including
universal service obligations, on all forms of VOIP. The best way
to avoid that happening in the future is for the current Commission to
draw some bright lines, rather than pretend the issue will go
away.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
WiFi and the Web
Intel's Sean Maloney compares WiFi to the Web:
You get the same feeling when you first use broadband wireless. Sitting in San Francisco International Airport, watching rugby on my notebook computer and synchronizing my Intel Outlook e-mail at warp speed is a magical experience. I used to spend an hour and a half or two hours a day futzing around, synchronizing my e-mail, as do so many road warriors. Now (snaps his fingers), it happens like that. It's magical.
The era now does have analogies to 1994. You know that there is too
much hype. On the other hand, you know that it is going to change
everything.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 11, 2003
A government-controlled Internet?
A big reason for the chain of
events that led to ICANN being created was to prevent just this sort of
governmental takeover. ICANN making a mess of things could have
been expected. What surprises me is the pressure for government
control to respond to issues like spam and inappropriate content.
Even in the US, there are an increasing number of voices in the private
sector making this argument. I don't think they understand the
Pandora's Box they are opening up.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Number portability and the telco death spiral
The
FCC's decision to require local number portability between wired and
wireless phones by November 24 could have a mjaor impact on the telecom
industry. According to the New York Times:
If 15% of customers really do turn off their landline phone service in the next few years, the impact on the local exchange carriers would be dramatic. Back of the envelope numbers:
- 15% of 150 million US wireless subscribers = 22.5 milion customers switching.
- Assume an average residential phone bill of $20/month, or $240/year.
- That's $5.4 billion in annual revenue the Bells would lose.
And we're not even talking about VOIP yet.
I have to say, Verizon's decision to brand both its wireliness and
wireline businesses under the same name is looking very wise right
now.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 10, 2003
We must close the grid computing gap!
According to a New York Times article,
the leading technology companies in grid computing are IBM, HP, and
Sun, plus startups such as United Devices. One could also add
Avaki, Entropia, DataSynapse, and Platform Computing to those mentioned.
Every one of these companies is based in North America. Other
than Platform, they are all based in the US. So explain to me
why the Times' headline is "Europe Exceeds U.S. in Refining Grid Computing"? I must be missing something.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Telepocalypse Nails It x 2
Martin Geddes, who works for an unnamed big telco, has a fabulous blog
called Telepocalypse that I've linked to a few times already. Two
of his posts last week deserve broader distribution.
One gives the best explanation for something I've only had an incohate conviction about: the importance of ENUM to the future evolution of the convergence of telecom and the Internet.
The other post gives a numerical illustration
of another point I've been making for a while: the yawning revenue gap
between the current voice-dominated industry of circuit-switched
telephony, and the future converged industry of packet data. As
Martin recognizes, the numbers don't add up.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Michael Powell's radical spectrum policies
Sarah Lai Stirland has an article in the Seattle Times
about Michael Powell and spectrum policy. A good overview, which
quotes a recent paper I co-wrote with Greg Staple, a Washington telecom
attorney. The current version isn't available online, but
derivatives will be published soon in ABA Communications Lawyer and IEEE Spectrum.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
All men are Socrates
Tim Bray, co-creator of XML and a member of the World Wide Web Consortium's Technical Advisory Group, weighs in responding to Clay Shirky's attack on
the Semantic Web. He admits he is not a total supporter of Tim
Berners-Lee's Semantic Web vision, but tries to defend a less ambitious
version of the idea. Yet he inadvertantly proves Clay's
point.
Here's Tim's argument about why the Semantic Web would actually be useful:
"Right now, if I hear of some company by name (for example, let’s imagine a
company called “Example Corporation”) I know that if I stick
www. in front of the name and .com after it, then I
can point a web browser at www.example.com and find out a bunch
of stuff...."
"So imagine that given any www.example.com, I could count on
there also being a data.example.com, which would typically have
all these facts available in some straightforward XML dialect, so that I
could use a program to do the tedious basic factfinding work."
What Tim wants would indeed be useful. It's the equivalent for
corporate Websites of the ancillary information that can be gleaned
from personal Weblogs: who the author is, who his or her friends are,
and whether there's an RSS syndication feed for the blog. As Clay
points out, though, the Weblog community has actually solved this
problem. Not through the Semantic Web, but through clever
hacks. The one for personal information is FOAF,
and the one for syndication feeds is RSS autodiscovery. As Clay
notes, autodiscovery is widely adopted depite the lack of any formal
standards work:
In a similar vein, I've spoken with several venture capitalists recently about Technorati and Feedster,
two aggregation services for RSS feeds. The VCs see the buzz
around blogs, syndication, and social networking. Yet they can't
figure out function the aggregation services provide. The best
argument I've been able to come up with is the following: Technorati
and Feedster are on the path to the Semantic Web that actually
works. They are attacking a very big problem -- the
machine-readable Web -- by addressing small problems that are real and
immediate.
(The title of this post, BTW, is an
old illustration of the problem with syllogisms. Clay's main
critique of the Semantic Web is that it relies on such formal logic,
which maps poorly to the real world. The joke goes: "Socrates was
a man. All men are mortal. Therefore, all men are Socrates!)
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November 7, 2003
Arnold Kling gets mad at Jack Valenti
Arnold doesn't like the broadcast flag requirement recently adopted by the FCC. His solution:
hereby declare that subsidy null and void. I am announcing the Jack
Valenti Spectrum Re-allocation. As of November 4, 2003, the spectrum
that was allocated for HDTV is now allocated for spread-spectrum wireless."
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FCC VOIP proceeding
Federal Communications Commission said Thursday (Nov. 6) it has
scheduled a Dec. 1 hearing on regulatory issues raised by the emerging
voice technology. Shortly after the forum, FCC officials said, the
agency will launch a review into the migration of voice services to
IP-based networks."
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Google Constellation?
Some of you may remember a product from Netscape around 1997 called
Constellation. This was back in the days when Netscape was riding high,
having rejected a huge buyout offer from Microsoft. Constellation
was a frontal assault on the Windows franchise -- an attempt to make
the browser the primary interface for accessing files and
applications. Microsoft responded with various mechanisms to put
Web content on the Windows desktop, and tightly integrated Internet
Explorer into Windows. Of course, Contellation failed, Netscape
lost its browser lead, and the company was never heard from
again. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration, but you get the idea.)
So what to make of Google Deskbar.
In an eerily parallel development, Google reportedly rejected a $10
billion buyout offer from Microsoft, and is now launching a product
that puts Google directly onto the Windows desktop. Google's
executives are much wiser that Netscape's, so you don't hear any
sabre-rattling about how they are going to crush Windows. Google
CEO Eric Schmidt has been at two companies -- Sun and Novell -- that
bore the brunt of successful Microsoft assaults, so you can bet he
understands the game he's paying.
Perhaps Google has to go after Windows, or be a sitting duck when
Microsoft comes after its search franchise. That's clearly what
Microsoft intends. With its extraordinary financial and research
assets, Microsoft can close the technical gap with Google's search
engine. Whether it can overcome Google's mindshare is another
question.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 6, 2003
The missing piece for wireless is... wireless
TelephonyOnline: "Cometa intends to test WiMAX in a backhaul role in early 2004 in its initial commercial market of Seattle, Weis said."
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November 5, 2003
The first VOIP telco
VC Fred Wilson announces that
ITXC, Tom Evslin's VOIP backbone company, is merging with Teleglobe to
form the world's third largest long-distance company. This is a
significant development. Like several of us, Tom recognized years
ago that VOIP was the future of the telephone business, but he actually
did something to make it happen. I have great respect for both
Fred and Tom, so it's nice to see them succeeding.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 4, 2003
VOIP regulatory developments
Two interesting nuggets in this article. Qwest plans to offer retail VOIP in Minnesota, and the FCC will hold a VOIP roundtable on December 1.
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November 3, 2003
Alternative compensation systems for digital media
John Palfrey of the Berkman Center at Harvard Law School provides an excellent overview of proposed compulsory license mechanisms for digital music:
I just hope the meeting at Berkman on December 5
includes opponents as well as proponents of these compensation
systems. They are worth debating and exploring, but it's wrong to
position them as the only alternative to the status quo of RIAA
lawsuits against file sharers.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
One word, and it's not "plastics"
John Edwards, guest-blogging at Lessig.org:
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Media and the limits of markets
Jeff Jarvis is all worked up
about Larry Lessig's and Mark Cooper's crusade against media
concentration. Take a deep breath, Jeff. Cooper's book
makes a traditional liberal argument that the media business is too
important for democracy to be left to market forces. As someone
in the media business, Jeff understandably recoils against this
position. He's right that there is more than a hint of
paternalism in the argument. (On the other hand, for all those
years conservatives were supposedly shut out of the mass media, I
didn't hear them resigning themselves to the market's verdict.)
Putting that debate aside, I think Jeff is too quick to lump Lessig and
Cooper together. They agree on the symptoms, but have different
diagnoses of the causes. Larry is eminently better than me at
expressing his own views (and most other people's views as well).
Let me just try to explain the distinction. Lessig doesn't reject
markets; he questions whether markets are in fact operating. It's
the same story as in copyright, where instead of getting caught up in
what "the market" could produce under current laws, he questions
whether those laws strike the balance that the Constitution
demands.
When it comes to media ownership, forget about Rupert Murdoch. At
the core of broadcast media is control over radio spectrum.
Spectrum allocation has been subject to absolute government management
since 1927. Whatever industry emerges on top of that base may
bear more or less indicia of a competitive market, but it's never going
to be one. So instead of debating whether government should be
involved in the media business, let's talk about what shape that
government involvement should take.
And meanwhile, let's push for a truly radical change: deregulation of wireless communication.
A true market it media content requires a true market in broadcast
platforms, which requires a true market in wireless devices... aka open
spectrum.
There's a paper here, which perhaps
I'll have time to write, on the birth of neomodern economics. Now
if only I didn't waste so much $@#%!$# time blogging....
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A must-read piece [1]
A must-read piece
by Brian Anderson on OpinionJournal.com, on how and why the right is
winning the battle of ideas. Those of us who aren't conservatives
must do more than get mad. We must develop long-term strategies
to get even.
Here's what's likely to happen in the years ahead. Think of the
mainstream liberal media as one sphere and the conservative media as
another. The liberal sphere, which less than a decade ago was still the
media, is still much bigger than the nonliberal one. But the nonliberal
sphere is expanding, encroaching into the liberal sphere, which is both
shrinking and breaking up into much smaller sectarian spheres--one for
blacks, one for Hispanics, one for feminists and so on.
It's hard to imagine that this development won't result in a broader national debate--and a more conservative America.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
MCI and the death of telecom as we know it
Om Malik is all worked up about MCI emerging from bankruptcy and launching a devastating price war. I say don't worry, be happy.
There are really only two intellectually honest viewpoints about the
future of the telecom industry. Om's perspective is on one side,
where the most thoughtful advocate is Eli Noam of
Columbia University. The argument is that telecom is locked in a
deflationary death spiral, which only the stabilizing influence of
regulators and oligopolies can avert. Conventional wisdom puts
FCC Chairman Michael Powell in this camp, but I think he's a believer
in the other perspective, where I generally find myself.
The alternative argument is that the death of the telecom inudstry as
we know it is inevitable, and efforts to pull it out of the tailspin
will only prolong and increase the pain. Ten years ago, there was
a $200 billion annual business in the US based primarily on charging
usage fees for voice communications. That's going away.
Something else may replace it, but it will be a data internetworking
industry with voice as one lucrative application. The more we
spend our energy pulling back from the brink, the less we focus on
defining what will come out the other side. And the less we think
the unthinkable and work on making the inevitably painful transition
less painful. That's what's at stake in the upcoming FCC voice
over IP proceeding, among other places.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
There's a there there
ENUM and SIP. Two acronyms that mean nothing unless you're a
Net-savvy telecom geek (like yours truly). Word to the wise: pay
attention. These are the bridges between the the world of
telephony and the world of the Internet. People like Jeff Pulver and James Seng are recognizing that something significant is afoot in the arcane world of network addressing and signaling.
Voice over IP has been around commercially for at least eight years,
but it's now reaching a critical stage of maturity. One side is
consumer adoption of services like Vonage and Skype, but that's just
surface activity. Deep integration on the back end is a more
profound shift. It's the difference between making a phone call
over the Internet, and voice as an internetworking application.
Or to put it another way, the different between the Internet as a
subset of telecommunications, and telecommunications as a subset of the
Internet.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Here come the meshes
Nortel and several startups are trialing wireless mesh-networking products, typically using 802.11a as a backbone to link meshes 802.11b nodes. (via Wi-Fi Networking News) I
assume 802.16 (WiMax) backhaul will be part of the mix as more
standards-compliant chipsets come on the market. Meshing and
wireless backhaul will take WiFi to the next stage -- from thousands of
purely short-range nodes to larger islands of connectivity.
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The relentless cycle of decentralization
Telepocalypse: "The days of Vonage are probably numbered because their own success will cause further arbitrage and disintermediation."
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Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Sour notes at MIT
The story of MIT service designed to allow legal music sharing on
campus has taken an inauspicious turn. My law school classmate
Jonathan Zittrain, quoted in the New York Times article,
has it right. The copyright system for music is broken, so
completely broken that not even the experts fully understand the state
of the law. The legal system is increasingly becoming a battering
ram against any form of innovation involving digital media.
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